Five steps, in the same order every time. The process is published so you can judge the work by how it was made, not by how confident it sounds.
Screen public markets for companies that stand out on valuation, quality, growth or — most importantly — a lack of attention. Analyst coverage is a filter, not a signal.
Study the business model, the industry, the competitive position, management and the financial statements. Read the annual reports, not the summaries.
Estimate intrinsic value with the method the business actually calls for: DCF, comparables, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield or sum-of-the-parts. State the assumptions in the open.
Actively look for reasons the thesis is wrong. The question is always: what would make us wrong, and what would we need to see to change our mind?
Only publish ideas that survive the challenge. Most do not, and that is the point.
We do not cover a company because it is trending. Attention is what we are trying to get ahead of, not follow.
Any valuation is tied to a business thesis and stated assumptions, or it is not published.
Both the bull and the bear case appear in every piece, including the version we hope is wrong.
Every thesis can be wrong. Where one of ours has been, we say so and explain what we missed.